Hichilema Against a Divided Opposition
Voters are choosing not only the president, but also members of the National Assembly and local government representatives, making the election a major test of public support for Hichilema's United Party for National Development (UPND) government.
Hichilema, who won the 2021 election after defeating then-President Edgar Lungu, is seeking to build on what his administration describes as significant economic progress.He is riding on the track record that His government has overseen the restructuring of Zambia's foreign debt after the country became the first African sovereign to default during the COVID-19 era, while inflation has fallen substantially from the levels recorded during the economic crisis. The government has also promoted investment in the mining sector, particularly copper, which remains central to Zambia's economy and is increasingly important to global supply chains linked to the energy transition.
However, economic improvements at the national level have not necessarily translated into better living conditions for many ordinary Zambians. Food prices, unemployment and household financial pressures remain major concerns, whereas many voters argue that the benefits of increased mining investment have yet to reach communities outside the country's economic centres. Consequently, the election has become as much a referendum on everyday economic conditions as it is a judgement on Hichilema's broader economic reforms.
Hichilema's main challenger is Brian Mundubile, a former member of parliament who is contesting the presidency under the opposition Tonse Alliance. Mundubile is campaigning on promises to give ordinary Zambians a greater share of the country's mineral wealth and has attacked the government over economic hardship and its record on governance. He is also benefiting from support among political forces associated with the late former President Edgar Lungu, whose death in 2025 reshaped Zambia's opposition landscape.
The opposition, however, enters the election divided. Several political groupings have fielded candidates, and the fragmentation has made it more difficult for Hichilema's opponents to present a single alternative to the ruling UPND. Besides Mundubile,other opposition candidates include Socialist Party leader Fred M'membe and Citizens First leader Harry Kalaba, among others. Therefore, although dissatisfaction with the government exists in parts of the electorate, opposition divisions could make it harder to convert that discontent into a single presidential challenge.
The Battle for Parliament
While much of the attention is focused on the presidential contest, the parliamentary election could determine how effectively the next president governs. Zambians are electing members of the National Assembly, and the outcome will establish whether Hichilema's UPND secures enough support in Parliament to advance its legislative and economic agenda or faces a stronger opposition capable of challenging government proposals.
The 2026 election is also taking place under a changed parliamentary system. A total of 226 constituency members are being directly elected, while 40 additional seats will be allocated through proportional representation. The new arrangement also provides reserved representation for women, young people and persons with disabilities, potentially changing the composition of the National Assembly.
This makes the parliamentary vote particularly important for the UPND and the opposition. A strong UPND performance would give Hichilema greater political space to pursue economic reforms, approve budgets and implement policies during a possible second term. Conversely, significant opposition gains could produce a more competitive legislature and force the government to negotiate on major legislation and spending decisions.
The parliamentary results could therefore provide an important measure of the depth of support for Hichilema. Even if he wins the presidency, a weak performance by the UPND in constituencies could leave his administration facing a more difficult second term.
Edgar Lungu's Shadow Still Hangs Over the Race
The legacy of Lungu has also remained an important part of the campaign. Lungu, who governed Zambia from 2015 to 2021 before losing to Hichilema, remained a powerful figure among opposition supporters even after his death. Disputes surrounding the handling of his remains and funeral further deepened tensions between his political allies and the Hichilema administration, while Mundubile has sought to use the issue to connect with voters who remain loyal to the former president's political camp.
The former president's political influence is particularly relevant because the opposition is attempting to consolidate voters who previously supported his Patriotic Front. However, with several opposition candidates competing for the presidency, it remains uncertain whether that support can be effectively transferred to one candidate.
Copper A Factor In This Vote
Copper is another central issue in the election. Zambia is one of Africa's major copper producers, and the metal's rising international demand has attracted billions of dollars in new mining investment in the country which Hichilema has presented as a solid evidence that his business-oriented economic policies are working, particularly as global demand for copper grows because of electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and other technologies that require the metal.
The government wants to significantly increase copper production and attract more international investment into the sector. For Hichilema, the expansion of mining represents an opportunity to generate foreign exchange, create jobs, increase government revenues and strengthen Zambia's position in the global critical-minerals market.
However, the copper boom has also created a political dilemma With Critics arguing that increased production and foreign investment will mean little unless more of the country's mineral wealth improves wages, employment and public services. Many communities in the Copperbelt and other mining areas want greater economic benefits from the resources extracted from their regions.
Consequently, the question is no longer simply how much copper Zambia can produce, but who benefits from that production. The government argues that increased investment will create a stronger economy over time, whereas opposition politicians have called for a greater share of mining wealth to reach ordinary citizens.
This debate over Zambia's copper resources could therefore shape the country's economic direction well beyond today's election. If Hichilema wins, his government is likely to continue pursuing mining investment and higher production. If the opposition makes significant gains, pressure could increase for changes to taxation, local employment, ownership structures and the distribution of mining revenues.
A Test for Zambia's Democratic Reputation
The election is also significant for Zambia's democratic reputation. The country has traditionally been regarded as one of the more stable multiparty democracies in the region, and the peaceful transfer of power from Lungu to Hichilema in 2021 was widely seen as an important democratic milestone. Nevertheless, opposition groups have raised concerns about political pressure and alleged interference, which the government has rejected.
The conduct of the election, therefore, will be closely watched both within Zambia and beyond its borders. A peaceful vote and orderly transfer of power, if required, would reinforce Zambia's reputation for democratic stability, whereas serious disputes over the results could test the country's political institutions.
What A Hichilema 2nd Term Means and the Road To A Run Off
For Hichilema, victory would give the president another five years to pursue debt management, mining investment and economic reforms, while also allowing the UPND to consolidate its political position. A strong opposition performance, however, particularly in Parliament, could force the government to operate in a more competitive political environment.
The parliamentary outcome could consequently be almost as important as the presidential result. A president with a supportive legislature has greater ability to implement his agenda, whereas a divided Parliament can slow legislation, increase political bargaining and give opposition parties greater influence over national policy.
Therefore, today's vote is not only about who occupies State House but also about the balance of power that will shape Zambia's next political and economic chapter.The presidential contest will be decided under a two-round system, meaning a candidate must secure more than 50 percent of the vote to win outright. If no candidate reaches that threshold, a run-off will be held within 37 days.
Although Hichilema is widely regarded as the frontrunner, the outcome will ultimately depend on turnout, regional voting patterns and whether opposition voters consolidate behind a single challenger. The fragmented opposition means that even significant dissatisfaction with the government may not automatically translate into a presidential victory for one opposition candidate.
Also as voting gets underway the central question is whether voters will reward Hichilema for the country's improving macroeconomic position or punish his government for the continued pressures facing households.
At the same time, voters are deciding who will represent them in Parliament and how Zambia's mineral wealth should be managed at a time when global demand for copper is rising. The presidential and parliamentary results will consequently provide a broader verdict on Hichilema's first term and the direction he wants to take the country during a possible second term.
The answer will determine not only Zambia's next president, but also the balance of power in Parliament and the direction of one of Southern Africa's most important copper-producing economies.
With Reporting from Reuters, Associated Press, Electoral Commission of Zambia, Al Jazeera, Institute for Security Studies and Financial Times.
